Home » Harry Winks – The Sideways & Backwards Argument Finally Settled|analysis

Harry Winks – The Sideways & Backwards Argument Finally Settled|analysis

By Joe Fish -

Tom Worville and Charlie Eccleshare of The Athletic recently combined to write this fascinating* insight into the deeper analytics of Tanguy Ndombele, to try to explain his first-year Premier League struggles and find some light at the end of the tunnel which is his Tottenham career.

*Must like graphs and charts.

I might delve into that another day, but I’ve written enough about the Frenchman to last a lifetime this past fortnight. Today I want to write about what this article taught me about another Spurs midfielder – Harry Winks.

MORE: Tanguy Ndombele Makes Decision Over His Spurs Future

Winks is one of the most divisive members of the current squad. His admirers consider him a fairly well-rounded midfielder; someone who can run, tackle, pass and dribble. His detractors don’t think that he does enough with that skill-set, that he rarely controls a game or moves it forward.

The biggest criticism of Winks is that he’s a sideways and backwards passer, but the stats dug out by Worville for The Athletic debunk that argument.

This graphic shows Premier League midfielders with the most ‘line breaks’ per 90 minutes this season. Line breaks are defined by The Athletic as “a pass that goes through a defensive line of the opposing team’s formation”, so in their very mature must go forward. Winks averages 4.4 successful line breaks a game, seventh most in the Premier League, as this table illustrates.

This puts Winks in close company with players who are perceived as being among the best passers in the division, notably Jorginho and David Silva.

Of only Spurs midfielders this campaign, Winks is a clear second behind Ndombele, averaging double the amount of successful line breaks that Christian Eriksen and Giovani Lo Celso record per game. It is easier to break the lines from deeper on the pitch, so it isn’t unusual for attacking midfielders to have lower numbers than sitting ones, but both Eriksen and Lo Celso have played just as often as 8s than they have as 10s this season.

This suggests that Winks plays more forward passes than you might initially think, and his completion rate of 80% successful line breaks, second among the 10 players who have attempted the most, is another favourable stat.

But this is where I think we reach the crux of the matter. Is Winks making 80% of his line break passes because he is picking the easier passes? Is this why his assist numbers are so poor? Two in 135 Spurs games, by the way.

The conclusion that Winks does progress the ball forward frequently, but with a majority of low-risk passes, is the most accurate assessment of the 24 year-old that can be reached with a mixture of stats and the first-hand eye.

So if you are one of the England international’s admirers, you can show your mate who isn’t this piece, to prove that he doesn’t just pass sideways.

But if your mate replies asking if that makes Winks a good player, then you are on your own. Because truth be told, I’ve still not made my mind up.

Tags harry winks NewsNow Tanguy N’Dombélé
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CowSpurs
CowSpurs
3 years ago

You need to highlight the average percentage number of passes that go forward, backward or sideways for a legitimate comparison to be made. As you stated, it is easier to pass forward from a deeper position. No team in the top 4 would buy him. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Eddie
Eddie
3 years ago

With those stats he should not be a defensive MF,it would be better to use him further forward.However he is still average,although his better performances have come against good opposition in Europe.

Pail D
Pail D
3 years ago

Forget stats, he is a bang average player. Someone like Cantwell looks far better or the lad at Chelsea. I go by what i see & every time i see him on team sheet my reaction is oh no. I want the best for Spurs & he isnt worthy

Tappaspur
Tappaspur
3 years ago

Still only a squad player for me. I watched him a lot at the lamex when he was coming through. I never really rated him. He ain’t no game changer.

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