Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs) are in danger of relegation from the Premier League in the 2025/26 season, but it’s far from certain—they’re currently fighting for survival rather than being doomed. With 7 games left (after 31 played), the probability sits roughly in the 15-25% range based on betting markets, supercomputer models, and recent form. Naturally, this won’t reassure Spurs fans, although “odds can fluctuate based on new developments”.
Current Standings: (as of late March 2026)
Spurs: 17th — 7 wins, 9 draws, 15 losses, 40 GF, 50 GA, -10 GD, 30 points.
Just 1 point above the drop zone (West Ham on 29 points in 18th).
Nottingham Forest sit 16th on 32 points.
Safe-ish above them:
Leeds on 33 points (15th). Almost certainly down: Burnley (20 pts) and Wolves (17 pts).
Spurs have been in free fall: no Premier League wins in 2026 (5 draws, 8 losses in 13 games), a 13-game winless streak (equalling a club record from over a century ago), and only 2 wins in their last 22 league matches. They’ve taken just 1 point from their last 5 games under interim manager Igor Tudor. Home form is dire—only 2 wins all season.
Relegation Odds and Probabilities
Betting markets: Spurs are around 9/5 to 13/8 (implied ~40-45% chance in some snapshots, but outright relegation odds have been quoted at 6/1 or ~14% in others; they’ve fluctuated with results). West Ham are often slightly shorter favourites to go down, with Forest and Leeds longer.
Opta supercomputer (recent runs): ~16-23% chance for Spurs (e.g., 23.33% after a recent loss; 16.1% earlier). West Ham has been rated ~50%+ at times. Models factor in remaining fixtures, power rankings, and historical data.
Other supercomputers have them narrowly surviving on ~41 points.
They’ll likely need 36–38 points to be safe this season (historically, 36 has sufficed in many years). That means roughly 2–3 wins (plus some draws) from the remaining 7 “finals,” as captain Cristian Romero called them.
Why It’s Possible (But Not Probable)The case for relegation (higher risk than usual for a “big” club):
Awful recent form and confidence crisis → booed off after home losses: long winless run and poor home record. Injuries are hitting key players (long-term issues for Maddison, Kulusevski, etc.; others like Vicario, Bissouma, Bentancur are sidelined or doubtful). Relegation would be a financial disaster (~£250m+ hit) and historic embarrassment (last relegated in 1977).
The case against (why ~75-85% chance they stay up): Squad quality is still far higher than typical relegation fodder.
Remaining fixtures include winnable games against fellow strugglers or mid-table sides (though some remain tough).
Rivals (West Ham, Forest) are also inconsistent; if Spurs nick a couple of wins, the gap can open quickly. Models give them a better projected point total than at least one rival in many simulations.
This is an unprecedented mess for Spurs: managerial instability, shocking slump, and a squad underperforming massively. A couple of positive results could ease the panic, but another loss or two (especially at home) would make it critical. The bottom three are likely Wolves, Burnley, and one of West Ham/Forest/Spurs—it’s a tight scrap where small margins will decide it.
In short: Unlikely overall (~15-25% chance), but very real and scary right now. Spurs fans should brace for a nervy run-in; a couple of wins would probably secure safety, but the current form makes that no sure thing.
