Tottenham Hotspur have appointed Roberto De Zerbi, one of the most promising young coaches in European football. The Italian’s arrival at North London brings new ambitions to a club which has previously served up sporadic flashes of greatness through chaotic football. Now, Spurs will aim to play as one of the most exciting, highly pressurised teams in the Premier League.
A system built on goals
Albion averaged 1.7 goals per match this season under De Zerbi, one of the most potent attacks in the Premier League by expected goals. De Zerbi’s commitment to high-tempo, possession-heavy football has already attracted attention beyond the terraces, with fans who enjoy football betting closely watching how his system reshapes Spurs’ attacking output and, in turn, the markets around goals and first scorers. This major shift in output had the effect of seeing the odds for over 2.5 goals at each match turn out to be shortened significantly throughout the season in Brighton.
Spurs already possess some attacking flair, and with De Zerbi’s guidance, the door could potentially be opened for Son Heung-min and a fit-again Richarlison to deliver regular performances. Given the data produced by Premier League attacks capable of scoring at this level, there is potential for Spurs to amass season tallies on par with the top six.
What the markets are saying
The early odds on finishing in the top four at Tottenham have been traded between 4/1 and 6/1 with different football bookmakers. With his new team currently in the middle of a transfer window, it’s no surprise that odds for the top four in the Premier League are already being listed with manager Roberto De Zerbi yet to get a full season in charge at Tottenham. Generally speaking, the football betting market will price in the element of managerial uncertainty in seasons where there has been a change behind the scenes. De Zerbi was appointed at the end of June, replacing Antonio Conte, and it remains to be seen what he can achieve this term.
When betting on football, it is always worthwhile for the punter to understand the odds and how the bookmaker prices the various markets available. While most focus on the team’s ‘quality’ and how they will perform on match day, it is vital that one also recognises the systemic elements that influence these systemic price points, especially in relation to goals (shot-based markets) and first scorer markets (season-long) throughout the campaign. For example, how will a team’s high-press approach affect their goal market price for a particular fixture, and likewise their first scorer prices for the season?
Squad needs and summer business
With the summer transfer window slowly coming to an end, there will continue to be a stream of transfer news surrounding the Spurs and how it could impact the club’s new-look style of play under Roberto De Zerbi. The Brighton manager previously utilised a lot of different players, but still managed to employ a variety of the same core formations, and Tottenham will need to address a lack of depth at full-back and in midfield in order to meet the demands of playing in multiple competitions.
De Zerbi’s model requires the team to complete around 8,000-8,100 progressive passes per season, a number that looks out of this world for Spurs given their performance according to Opta last season when they averaged around 7,633 progressive passes per match.
A shift in expectation, not just style
The new Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi may represent a shift in direction at struggling Tottenham Hotspur. The Italian Manager will no doubt be keen to get back to the top-four and, depending on how much he’ll need to bring to the existing squad, the odds for Tottenham to finish in the top four could potentially drop in the coming weeks. The first ten games of the Premier League season will reveal much about where the Spurs are heading and their chances to finish in the top four, giving the odds much more life and value than pre-season thoughts.
