As of mid-February 2026 in the 2025-26 Premier League season, Tottenham Hotspur are in a surprisingly precarious position but the chances of them actually getting relegated remain relatively low, though not zero. Tottenham currently sits in 16th place in the table after 26 matches, with a record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses (29 points, goal difference -1).
They are just five points above the relegation zone typically around Nottingham Forest in 17th on 27 points, West Ham in 18th on 24 points, with Burnley and Wolves effectively already relegated or near-certain to go down based on odds and projections.
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This follows a dismal run of form, including no league wins in 2026 so far and the recent sacking of manager Thomas Frank after a 2-1 home loss to Newcastle. Igor Tudor has since been appointed, but the team has been dragged into the scrap despite their squad quality and recent Europa League success.
Relegation Odds and Probabilities
Betting markets and predictive models reflect a real but outsider threat:Relegation odds vary across bookmakers but generally place Tottenham around 5/1 to 7/1 (implied probability roughly 12-17%).
They rank as the 4th or 5th most likely to go down, behind West Ham (heavy favourites at 5/6-11/13), Nottingham Forest (12/5-14/5), and sometimes others like Leeds.
Prediction models are more optimistic for survival: Opta’s supercomputer (as of early-mid February) gives Tottenham only a ~3.95% chance of relegation. It projects them to finish around 16th with ~44-45 points, comfortably safe in most simulations. Wolves and Burnley are near 100% relegated, West Ham ~70-75%, Forest ~15-26%, while Spurs are well clear in projections.
The discrepancy comes from betting odds incorporating more pessimistic views (recent form, fixture difficulty, managerial change) versus data models that weigh underlying metrics (xG, squad depth, historical survival rates for teams with Spurs’ resources) more heavily. Teams with 29+ points this deep into the season historically have very high survival rates (often >95%), and Spurs’ metrics suggest they “deserve” more points than they’ve got.
While it’s a genuine concern. Spurs are in the relegation conversation for the first time in decades, with financial warnings of a “catastrophic” £100m+ hit if it happens—the probability is still low: around 4-15% depending on the source, with most advanced models leaning toward the lower end.
A turnaround under the new manager, better results against upcoming fixtures (including Arsenal soon), or continued struggles from teams below them could quickly make this a non-issue. But right now, it’s far from impossible, and the pressure is very real for a club of Tottenham’s stature.
