Home » Forensic Watford Analysis [chaos theory]

Forensic Watford Analysis [chaos theory]

By The Boy -
Thank you a gain, Forensic Onions

Chaos Theory

Poch went with a pretty strange format tonight. In theory it was a 352, and I know Spurs are one of the most tactically flexible teams under Poch, but this structure tonight never felt totally cohesive. It morphed into various things, 3142, 3322, and second half became even more confused, maybe a 3412. 

I’m not a huge fan of this particular evolution of our 3CB system. I don’t think Llorente has the dynamism to make up for the fact that we are taking an attacking player out of the equation (for an extra CB), and I don’t think the delivery from Rose or offensive play from Aurier is invariably good enough to make up that shortfall. 

If we are going to play Rose and Aurier, they have the energy to be able to play a back four system, but for some reason the format Poch is most reluctant to play is the one I think would suit us best, especially with Kane out, and that’s a 433. 

Selection wise it’s interesting but not surprising that Dier was dropped.

He’s been Poch’s teflon boy for too long now; he has a decent future as a CB hopefully, but is sorely lacking the mobility and footballing dexterity for top table midfield in the fiercely high tempo Premier League.

His last two turgid outings against Chelsea and Palace deserved the culling, but Poch hasn’t always treated all his men equal, Dier benefitting from this more than most others. 

Revolucion t shirt


Anybody wondering why Trippier still gets picked so often, only has to watch Aurier for the answer. Another who was awful against Chelsea, was so bad tonight he suffered that rarest Poch humiliations, subbed at HT.

Poch’s slightly fudged solution was to shunt Sissoko out from an ineffective “8” role to an ineffective WB role, where he offered no more than Aurier, and eventually forced Poch to bring on his third wing back of the night in Trippier. Surely it’s time for the Aurier experiment to end, and with Trippier going through a bit of a tough time also, surely it’s time for KWP to be given more games. 

I think we’d have been much better just taking a CB off at half time, putting Moura on and going 433 or 4231and getting some movement going in and around around Llorente.

Moura popped in in various places, and did inject some vim, but as ever, not quite so much tangible quality end product, spending too much time in central areas, running into traffic, when he does get into the outside right and left channels he can cause some mayhem, but for whatever reason Poch keeps pushing him inside.

I’m sure none of us begrudge Llorente his winner. It’s been hard for him, the life of the Kane understudy is a thankless one, you get 5 games a season and are expected to be “Kane2”, anything less is deemed abject failure.

The truth is, Kane misses chances, all strikers do, especially those half chances that look so tantalising from afar, but are really much harder in reality when you have to snatch at them, contorting, before they vanish.

Technically he is still a very good “big fella” it’s just that all round uber bundle of fucktiousness, that galvanising energy that a fit and “on it” Kane has been bringing of late that we sorely miss. 

We did dominate most of this game, and we did turn up the intensity second half, situations occurred, a couple of half chances came and went, but it all just felt a bit chaotic.

Maybe it was this chaos that enabled us eventually to snatch something in the last ten minutes, but if that’s true, it’s also true to say it contributed to us snatching very little of quality for the previous eighty and also gave Watford plenty of optimism in the first half, where they took advantage of our chaos on a few occasions. 

Credit to Poch though, this team never gives up, and I remember watching the big sides previously and being envious of how they always managed to dig out results, I can’t remember a Spurs side as good at that as this one.

Whatever else we suffer from at times, composure, a bit of tactical guile…. mentality is not one of those things. 

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Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

Even if we lose 5, United would need to win all bar 2. Chelsea and Arsenal all bar 3. I don’t see any of the teams doing that. I think if we can get to Kane’s return only losing 1or2 we will be ok.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  chrism090861

I cant see United catching us, so I think we will make top 4. But as I said, will be due failings of others rather than us.

chrism090861
chrism090861
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

Probably got bored so decided to move upfield a little bit !!

chrism090861
chrism090861
4 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

The way those two are playing I would be more worried about Man Unt making up the final place in the top 4… I think the Chelsea players are now doing what they did to Mourinho, they want Sarri sacked after he criticised them. Them lot are poison, and have been for years..

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

United are most likely to be a problem, we have the hardest run in I think and so it appears the weakest squad. I think we will definitely lose a minimum of 3 more games, more likely 4-5 between now and the end of the season. It’s going to be a tough ask, the killer game when we look back might just be the United home game/loss

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

I honestly think we will lose a few more – but we are 7 points clear, and would require a real bad screw up to be over taken by both sides. Arsenal are in-consistent and Chelsea are looking VERY poor in the league. I don’t think we will hold top 4 as much as they will fail to catch us.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

I am not sure…I would guess shore now you say it…? one for google.

Harry Hotspur
Harry Hotspur
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

Not problem mate

Accy
Accy
4 years ago
Reply to  chrism090861

DOn’t underestimate what Alderweireld was doing – basically played a deep lying playmaker role last night.

inacafe
inacafe
4 years ago
Reply to  barney

minus 4 and Watford not the best attractions

inacafe
inacafe
4 years ago
Reply to  Ronan

We still have chelsea, man city and liverpool to play away and arse at home, we could get zero points there, think top4 is going to be a very close call for us, we must beat newcastle and leicester at home (tough ask with INJURY LIST) to have any chance of top 4, that’s how I see it

inacafe
inacafe
4 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

Shore would, is it sure or shore up? either way he sure/shore would

inacafe
inacafe
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

all true enough, for now I would think KWP is probably our best right back

Harry Hotspur
Harry Hotspur
4 years ago
Reply to  eddie

29, 164.

Harry Hotspur
Harry Hotspur
4 years ago
Reply to  dilly

So what you’re saying is…. Another world record!

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

I think we need to go for Dacoure of Watford. Could make an instant impact and would sure up our midfield.

Accy
Accy
5 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

Should have brought him in 2 summers ago when he was at Nice. We were linked, but ended up going for Serge. Insanity. I remember watching Serge’s showreel and thinking, ‘oh no, they’re efffing up another transfer, here.’

So far, I’m wasn’t wrong in that judgement.

SpursGoliath
SpursGoliath
4 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

At this point we just need to get into the new stadium so whatever the form, at least the players ‘feel’ like they are playing at home, in front of home support.

Our away form used to be our weakness! Now it’s second to none…but our Wembley form is a distant second to our WHL form.

I’m trying not to judge too much this season, it’s a cluster fook

eddie
eddie
4 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

Can’t remember where I saw it but an exact figure was quoted at 29K odd,less than 30K anyway.

inacafe
inacafe
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

if they both go you would think we would need to bring one in. On another note I would go all out to sign the Leicester right back in the summer. Trippier is crap

dilly
dilly
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

Only me
Under 30,000
29,000ish – lowest Spurs PL Wembley attendance to date.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

The Sun and This is football…may as will quote Facebook – however, I am not saying its impossible! I would hope its because the Cardiff deal is looking likely for a transfer right now.

Ronan
Ronan
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

Sadly an all too plausible story. We know the greed is instinctual and insatiable and pushes beyond boundaries that even other sharks consider reasonable. Other recent examples were the last minute forcing of a corporate 1882 club into the middle of the new kop and that doubling of his own salary.

Accy
Accy
4 years ago
Reply to  Ronan

Maybe GKN to monaco and possibly Janssen off to somewhere but don’t believe for a moment we’re bringing anyone in.

SpursGoliath
SpursGoliath
4 years ago
Reply to  SpursGoliath

I think before there were maybe one or two at any time you’d put in this bracket…and sometimes they’d work through the bad form etc.

Now with six or seven in the match day squad…you can’t really do that with all of them. Need consistent performers coming in, and a few exits.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

What is a “loan to buy” transfer? Are they obligated to buy? If so why not do a buy now, staged payment plan?

Harry Hotspur
Harry Hotspur
4 years ago

Debenhams are on Amber Alert

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  SpursGoliath

This summer we will need to replace Toby and Eriksen (potentially Jan). Our Full backs are not good enough, Lloris is looking worse each week, and our defensive midfield looks poor. Then we have no cover for any position really. We will potentially need 7 signings this summer just to be were we started this season. If we had bought better in previous years we would possibly had won the league, now each top 4 finish is a bonus.

Who would have thought 6yrs ago we would be saying “only top 4”!! My issue is it seems like we have stagnated.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie

Until they start playing the worlds best defensive midfielder back in defensive midfield, they will have issues. Hazard is being played out of position too. The guy is nuts.

eddie
eddie
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

If this is true Levy is an even bigger cunt than we all thought.It would be interesting to hear Poch’s take on that.

Accy
Accy
4 years ago
Reply to  Accy

Sorry H, couldn’t see the source article

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago
Reply to  eddie

What was the official attendance last night? Isnt this the first league game since Spurs announced the rights to have an increased capacity at Wembley?

Willie!
Willie!
4 years ago

This “analysis” is woefully inept, callow, clownish. The structure was a 3-4-1-2 from kickoff with Eriksen sitting in a #10 role behind Son and Llorente. Sissoko offered more down the right that Aurier, fact. Playing a back 3 is not “taking an attacking player out of the equation (for an extra CB)”, when the alternative is to restrict the additional midfielder to a holding role while not giving your outside CBs license to join the attack as Vertonghen was doing, and not giving your FBs free reign to attack at any time knowing if they’re caught upfield they have cover. This was a whole lotta words to expose a comical lack of understanding of what happens on a football pitch.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago

Nkloudou has gone.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago

Anyone else looking at the Newcastle deals and thinking they have spent A LOT of money on some very poor to average players?

Aussie in Switzerland
Aussie in Switzerland
4 years ago

Have the shopping centre test events been booked in yet?

Billy the yid
Billy the yid
4 years ago

Bravo Daniel. What a great idea to try and take the piss with a price for someone who isn’t gonna figure, so whatever you get in reality is a bonus. I know you don’t need any educating in what a bonus is tho…

SpursGoliath
SpursGoliath
4 years ago

Going to be interesting this summer because you really feel Poch has to admit some players have stagnated or regressed this season – and that’s been rare under Poch, players usually improve…or at least he gets the best out of them.

Aurier, Davies, Trippier, Dier, Lloris, Wanyama, possibly Lamela, maybe even Sanchez

Can these players now be trusted to find their previous best form or improve beyond that? Not sure.

inacafe
inacafe
4 years ago

I think we will sign a new ball boy

eddie
eddie
4 years ago

Unfortunately I only got to see highlights of the game on MOTD so difficult to gauge our performance.What’s the betting the ENIC pr machine told the BBC commentators not to mention the meagre attendance and pan away from areas of empty seating.
Very welcome 3 points on 2 nights where results went our way.Surely we can’t continue to have this luck.Utd. look like they could push us ,but hopefully the Chavs and Arse are out of the equation.

OrganicPaper
OrganicPaper
4 years ago

all our recent troubles were banished (at least for a few hours) when we scored that winner. Absolute magic and im very glad it was Son and Llorente who scored.
If big Fernando can get his confidence up and improve on this game then we should be OK, esp now Son is back.

Just a word for Danny Rose though. Another great game, back to his old self. If only we could sort out the right wingback position we will be flying again.

chrism090861
chrism090861
4 years ago

Blimey, my old nervous system took a bettering last night !! City Lost the night before, Chelsea were getting battered by Bournemouth, and Liverpool were looking less and less likely to win, and there we were bumbling along losing to Watford, another missed opportunity !! Then all of a sudden !! Totally agree with ‘Ronan’, why on earth were we playing with 3 centre backs against a team that were coming to sit and lump it upfield every now and again !! Deeney is a handful, but it doesn’t need 3 of them to handle him. Sonny is my hero!! Liverpool looked nervous last night, so i dont care if one goes in off someones backside in the next two games, two 1-nil wins would do me fine !!!

barney
barney
4 years ago

the fans are at last showing Enic and co that they will no longer pay out for dross very poor turn out last night why should we keep putting our hands in our pockets when the owners take the piss F*CK OFF ENIC

Accy
Accy
4 years ago

https://thisisfutbol.com/2019/01/blogs/premier-league/levy-changes-goalposts-at-last-minute-over-janssen-exit/

Vincent Janssen’s potential transfer to Real Betis has collapsed after Daniel Levy moved the goalposts at the last minute, according to the Sun.

The newspaper claim the Holland international, 24, was “certain” to join the La Liga club on a loan-to-buy transfer.

But the Sun report “Levy is understood to have increased the loan fee by £1m and the Seville-based club has walked away”.

Only Me
Only Me
4 years ago

Denis Suarez to Arsenal…you trying to tell me he wouldn’t improve our squad?

Ronan
Ronan
4 years ago

Yes, no need for five defenders at home to the likes of Watford now sonny’s back. The team looked a different animal in the 2nd half once another attacker had come on for a defender.

Meantime, poch has already delivered 3 x CL money to the tapeworm, with a fourth consecutive windfall now looking likely.

And yet..

“Tottenham are waiting on Bolton on deadline day to see if they are willing to do business for midfielder Luca Connell, according to Times journalist Paul Joyce”

Eddie
Eddie
4 years ago

Chavski’s loan of Higuain is looking a nice bit of busines.Expect Morata to start
scoring goals now.

Willie!
Willie!
5 years ago

This “analysis” is woefully inept, callow, clownish. The structure was a 3-4-1-2 from kickoff with Eriksen sitting in a #10 role behind Son and Llorente. Sissoko offered more down the right that Aurier, fact. Playing a back 3 is not “taking an attacking player out of the equation (for an extra CB)”, when the alternative is to restrict the additional midfielder to a holding role while not giving your outside CBs license to join the attack as Vertonghen was doing, and not giving your FBs free reign to attack at any time knowing if they’re caught upfield they have cover. This was a whole lotta words to expose a comical lack of understanding of what happens on a football pitch.

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago

Nkloudou has gone.

SpursGoliath
SpursGoliath
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

At this point we just need to get into the new stadium so whatever the form, at least the players ‘feel’ like they are playing at home, in front of home support.

Our away form used to be our weakness! Now it’s second to none…but our Wembley form is a distant second to our WHL form.

I’m trying not to judge too much this season, it’s a cluster fook

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago

Anyone else looking at the Newcastle deals and thinking they have spent A LOT of money on some very poor to average players?

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  SpursGoliath

This summer we will need to replace Toby and Eriksen (potentially Jan). Our Full backs are not good enough, Lloris is looking worse each week, and our defensive midfield looks poor. Then we have no cover for any position really. We will potentially need 7 signings this summer just to be were we started this season. If we had bought better in previous years we would possibly had won the league, now each top 4 finish is a bonus.

Who would have thought 6yrs ago we would be saying “only top 4”!! My issue is it seems like we have stagnated.

SpursGoliath
SpursGoliath
5 years ago
Reply to  SpursGoliath

I think before there were maybe one or two at any time you’d put in this bracket…and sometimes they’d work through the bad form etc.

Now with six or seven in the match day squad…you can’t really do that with all of them. Need consistent performers coming in, and a few exits.

SpursGoliath
SpursGoliath
5 years ago

Going to be interesting this summer because you really feel Poch has to admit some players have stagnated or regressed this season – and that’s been rare under Poch, players usually improve…or at least he gets the best out of them.

Aurier, Davies, Trippier, Dier, Lloris, Wanyama, possibly Lamela, maybe even Sanchez

Can these players now be trusted to find their previous best form or improve beyond that? Not sure.

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago

I think we will sign a new ball boy

Billy the yid
5 years ago

Bravo Daniel. What a great idea to try and take the piss with a price for someone who isn’t gonna figure, so whatever you get in reality is a bonus. I know you don’t need any educating in what a bonus is tho…

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago

Denis Suarez to Arsenal…you trying to tell me he wouldn’t improve our squad?

Aussie in Switzerland
Aussie in Switzerland
5 years ago

Have the shopping centre test events been booked in yet?

dilly
dilly
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

Only me
Under 30,000
29,000ish – lowest Spurs PL Wembley attendance to date.

Ronan
Ronan
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

Sadly an all too plausible story. We know the greed is instinctual and insatiable and pushes beyond boundaries that even other sharks consider reasonable. Other recent examples were the last minute forcing of a corporate 1882 club into the middle of the new kop and that doubling of his own salary.

eddie
eddie
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

Can’t remember where I saw it but an exact figure was quoted at 29K odd,less than 30K anyway.

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  eddie

What was the official attendance last night? Isnt this the first league game since Spurs announced the rights to have an increased capacity at Wembley?

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

What is a “loan to buy” transfer? Are they obligated to buy? If so why not do a buy now, staged payment plan?

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

The Sun and This is football…may as will quote Facebook – however, I am not saying its impossible! I would hope its because the Cardiff deal is looking likely for a transfer right now.

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

Even if we lose 5, United would need to win all bar 2. Chelsea and Arsenal all bar 3. I don’t see any of the teams doing that. I think if we can get to Kane’s return only losing 1or2 we will be ok.

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

I am not sure…I would guess shore now you say it…? one for google.

eddie
eddie
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

If this is true Levy is an even bigger cunt than we all thought.It would be interesting to hear Poch’s take on that.

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

United are most likely to be a problem, we have the hardest run in I think and so it appears the weakest squad. I think we will definitely lose a minimum of 3 more games, more likely 4-5 between now and the end of the season. It’s going to be a tough ask, the killer game when we look back might just be the United home game/loss

eddie
eddie
5 years ago

Unfortunately I only got to see highlights of the game on MOTD so difficult to gauge our performance.What’s the betting the ENIC pr machine told the BBC commentators not to mention the meagre attendance and pan away from areas of empty seating.
Very welcome 3 points on 2 nights where results went our way.Surely we can’t continue to have this luck.Utd. look like they could push us ,but hopefully the Chavs and Arse are out of the equation.

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

Shore would, is it sure or shore up? either way he sure/shore would

Accy
Accy
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

Sorry H, couldn’t see the source article

Accy
Accy
5 years ago

https://thisisfutbol.com/2019/01/blogs/premier-league/levy-changes-goalposts-at-last-minute-over-janssen-exit/

Vincent Janssen’s potential transfer to Real Betis has collapsed after Daniel Levy moved the goalposts at the last minute, according to the Sun.

The newspaper claim the Holland international, 24, was “certain” to join the La Liga club on a loan-to-buy transfer.

But the Sun report “Levy is understood to have increased the loan fee by £1m and the Seville-based club has walked away”.

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago
Reply to  barney

minus 4 and Watford not the best attractions

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie

Until they start playing the worlds best defensive midfielder back in defensive midfield, they will have issues. Hazard is being played out of position too. The guy is nuts.

OrganicPaper
OrganicPaper
5 years ago

all our recent troubles were banished (at least for a few hours) when we scored that winner. Absolute magic and im very glad it was Son and Llorente who scored.
If big Fernando can get his confidence up and improve on this game then we should be OK, esp now Son is back.

Just a word for Danny Rose though. Another great game, back to his old self. If only we could sort out the right wingback position we will be flying again.

Eddie
Eddie
5 years ago

Chavski’s loan of Higuain is looking a nice bit of busines.Expect Morata to start
scoring goals now.

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  chrism090861

I cant see United catching us, so I think we will make top 4. But as I said, will be due failings of others rather than us.

barney
barney
5 years ago

the fans are at last showing Enic and co that they will no longer pay out for dross very poor turn out last night why should we keep putting our hands in our pockets when the owners take the piss F*CK OFF ENIC

chrism090861
chrism090861
5 years ago
Reply to  Only Me

The way those two are playing I would be more worried about Man Unt making up the final place in the top 4… I think the Chelsea players are now doing what they did to Mourinho, they want Sarri sacked after he criticised them. Them lot are poison, and have been for years..

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

I honestly think we will lose a few more – but we are 7 points clear, and would require a real bad screw up to be over taken by both sides. Arsenal are in-consistent and Chelsea are looking VERY poor in the league. I don’t think we will hold top 4 as much as they will fail to catch us.

Only Me
Only Me
5 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

I think we need to go for Dacoure of Watford. Could make an instant impact and would sure up our midfield.

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

all true enough, for now I would think KWP is probably our best right back

chrism090861
chrism090861
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

Probably got bored so decided to move upfield a little bit !!

Accy
Accy
5 years ago
Reply to  inacafe

Should have brought him in 2 summers ago when he was at Nice. We were linked, but ended up going for Serge. Insanity. I remember watching Serge’s showreel and thinking, ‘oh no, they’re efffing up another transfer, here.’

So far, I’m wasn’t wrong in that judgement.

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago
Reply to  Accy

if they both go you would think we would need to bring one in. On another note I would go all out to sign the Leicester right back in the summer. Trippier is crap

Accy
Accy
5 years ago
Reply to  chrism090861

DOn’t underestimate what Alderweireld was doing – basically played a deep lying playmaker role last night.

inacafe
inacafe
5 years ago
Reply to  Ronan

We still have chelsea, man city and liverpool to play away and arse at home, we could get zero points there, think top4 is going to be a very close call for us, we must beat newcastle and leicester at home (tough ask with INJURY LIST) to have any chance of top 4, that’s how I see it

Accy
Accy
5 years ago
Reply to  Ronan

Maybe GKN to monaco and possibly Janssen off to somewhere but don’t believe for a moment we’re bringing anyone in.

chrism090861
chrism090861
5 years ago

Blimey, my old nervous system took a bettering last night !! City Lost the night before, Chelsea were getting battered by Bournemouth, and Liverpool were looking less and less likely to win, and there we were bumbling along losing to Watford, another missed opportunity !! Then all of a sudden !! Totally agree with ‘Ronan’, why on earth were we playing with 3 centre backs against a team that were coming to sit and lump it upfield every now and again !! Deeney is a handful, but it doesn’t need 3 of them to handle him. Sonny is my hero!! Liverpool looked nervous last night, so i dont care if one goes in off someones backside in the next two games, two 1-nil wins would do me fine !!!

Ronan
Ronan
5 years ago

Yes, no need for five defenders at home to the likes of Watford now sonny’s back. The team looked a different animal in the 2nd half once another attacker had come on for a defender.

Meantime, poch has already delivered 3 x CL money to the tapeworm, with a fourth consecutive windfall now looking likely.

And yet..

“Tottenham are waiting on Bolton on deadline day to see if they are willing to do business for midfielder Luca Connell, according to Times journalist Paul Joyce”

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